2023 Semiconductor Industry Outlook: Ten Major Trends and Predictions

This report, originating from Zhejiang Business Science, presents the "2023 Semiconductor Future Top Ten Trend Forecast" based on the 2023 consumer chip inventory turning point and domestic semiconductor localization milestones, outlining ten major predictions for the year.

Prediction 1: Mature processes will become the main expansion force for domestic fabs. TrendForce data shows mature nodes (28nm and above) hold 76% of wafer fab market share in 2021, with 14% global capacity growth in 2022, 65% of which is for mature processes. Leading foundries (TSMC, UMC, GlobalFoundries) allocate roughly 74% of capacity to mature nodes, with TSMC, UMC, and GlobalFoundries planning significant capacity increases.

Prediction 2: Semiconductor policy intensity will increase globally. China remains a follower in the semiconductor landscape; 2021 market share distribution is US 46%, Korea 21%, Japan 9%, Europe 9%, Taiwan 8%, Mainland China 7%. Policies will focus on strengthening supply chains and R&D.

Prediction 3: Chiplet will become the main technology bridging process gaps. Chiplet enables die‑to‑die interconnects, allowing mature processes combined with advanced packaging to meet performance needs, reducing cost and design complexity, and supporting high‑performance computing and AI workloads.

Prediction 4: FD‑SOI offers a pathway to advanced processes for China. FD‑SOI (including RF‑SOI) provides high‑performance, low‑power solutions for 5G, autonomous driving, and AI, with comparable performance to EUV‑based FinFETs but at lower cost, supported by domestic and foreign equipment suppliers.

Prediction 5: RISC‑V will lead domestic CPU IP breakthroughs. The open‑source RISC‑V architecture enables China to achieve full‑stack chip autonomy, with increasing domestic IP contributions and a growing ecosystem targeting high‑performance computing, IoT, and edge applications.

Prediction 6: Anti‑globalization will drive a domestic semiconductor inner‑loop. The US CHIPS Act and related restrictions will push the industry from globalized division of labor toward self‑reliance, accelerating domestic investment in advanced nodes.

Prediction 7: Terminal manufacturers and design firms will move upstream. Companies will seek design and even fab rights to secure supply, reduce dependence, and capture higher margins, as seen in smartphone, automotive, and cloud provider chip initiatives.

Prediction 8: Smart cockpits will become the main battlefield for electric vehicle intelligence. The evolution from early touch‑screen interfaces to multi‑screen, sensor‑rich cockpits will dominate EV user experience in the next 3‑5 years.

Prediction 9: Chip inventory cycles will continue, with the turning point reached. Four inventory phases—active depletion, passive depletion, active replenishment, passive replenishment—are outlined, indicating the market is transitioning to a replenishment stage.

Prediction 10: Domestic semiconductor ecosystem (5.0) will be established. The roadmap moves from design (1.0) through wafer manufacturing, equipment, EDA/IP, and finally to a fully integrated domestic supply chain, aiming for self‑contained production and reduced external risk.