Hyperion Research ISC23 HPC Market Update: Trends, Forecasts, and AI Impact

In Hyperion Research’s annual ISC HPC market update briefing (2023), research director Mark Nossokoff noted that defining the composition of HPC is challenging due to rapidly evolving technologies, geopolitical trade restrictions, and a fragile global economy.

Hyperion’s update shows a slight increase in HPC revenue in 2022 and an expected similar rise in 2023, though growth is modest—around 4% versus the hoped‑for 6‑7%.

Joseph highlighted that the HPC sub‑market, once a small niche over the past 8‑10 years, is now a key driver, with global HPC spending projected to reach about $33 billion in 2023 (on‑premises) and $52 billion by 2026 when cloud HPC is included.

Ten 2023 predictions were presented:

1. Strong growth of leading markets: Moderate expansion of the global on‑premises HPC market.

2. Supply‑chain driven by national policies: Governments emphasizing domestic demand will shape the HPC supply chain.

3. Sustainability and energy efficiency: Power consumption rises to become the third priority after price and performance.

4. Cloud utilization shifting production workloads: Low‑end on‑premises spending will be eroded.

5. 2023 as the year of AI regulation.

Additional forecasts include divergence between application‑specific and general‑purpose HPC architectures, a shift of focus from pure compute to interconnect and storage, rising interest in edge PCs without a matching spend surge, and a continued scarcity of HPC talent.

AI remains a dominant force; ChatGPT has heightened global awareness, and Hyperion projects a 22.7% compound annual growth rate for AI over the next five years.

Server vendor rankings remain stable, with prepaid server sales projected to reach roughly $17 billion in 2023, a new high.

Cloud‑based HPC is expected to grow rapidly, especially in the low‑end market, with cloud growth rates nearly three times that of on‑premises spending.

Approximately two‑thirds of HPC cloud spend goes to compute, about one‑third to storage, with the remainder covering software licenses and other costs; a clear distinction exists between accelerated and non‑accelerated instances.

Emerging DPU/IPU markets are noteworthy, with AMD’s acquisition of Pensando and continued road‑map investments by Microsoft and NVIDIA.

The full slide deck and additional reports (e.g., Hyperion Research HPC/AI market reports, whitepapers, and related analyses) are available via the provided download links.

For further reading, see the linked articles on HPC market share, AI foundations, and related industry reports.