How to Spot Winning Technologies Before They Fade Away

Why Learn to Identify New Technologies?

Developing the ability to discern whether a new technology is hype or opportunity is essential for becoming a technical pioneer and protecting company interests.

Joining too early can make you a "martyr".

Joining too late means missing the chance, as winners take all.

New Technologies Struggle to Survive

Only a tiny fraction of the 7,800+ RFCs published by IETF have found real‑world deployment.

Most remain "net drifters" or only temporary residents.

TCP/IP is the founding technology of the Internet. IP assigns unique addresses to every device, while TCP ensures reliable end‑to‑end transmission and congestion control.

IP defines unique communication addresses for edge devices such as tablets, smartphones, sensors, and servers.

TCP provides reliability, congestion avoidance, and control for IP packets.

1. First‑Generation Internet Technology Entrepreneurship

Successful infrastructure examples:

UDP, ICMP, ARP, PPP, OSPF, BGP, DNS, DHCP, CIDR, VLSM, VLAN, NAT, MPLS, VPN, DPI, CDN, etc.

2. Second‑Generation Internet Technology Entrepreneurship

After infrastructure was saturated, focus shifted to applications and platforms.

WWW/browsers, portals, search engines, SNS, P2P, open‑source projects, etc.

This shift was driven by the transition from narrow‑band dial‑up to broadband.

3. Third‑Generation Internet Technology Entrepreneurship

The current wave moves toward smart terminals and cloud platforms.

iOS/Android, App Stores, mobile payments, wearables, etc.

What Makes a New Technology Fail?

Typical failure traits include vague promises, unclear problem definition, reliance on closed ecosystems, unrealistic perfection, misalignment with Moore’s law, and weak economic rationale.

Claims to cure everything without a clear problem.

Concept is fuzzy and indistinguishable from existing tech.

Targets only mature, profit‑driven markets.

Requires a proprietary ecosystem.

Appears "perfect" without trade‑offs.

Violates Moore’s law trends.

Economic arguments are weak or forced.

Other reasons.

Failed Examples

IPv6: Requires global coordination; early adopters gain little.

Pre‑2010 IoT hype: Premature, lacking supporting cloud and big‑data infrastructure.

NGN: Attempted to lock telecom operators into a closed chain.

ATM: Sought resource savings before Moore’s law slowed.

SCTP, DCCP, HIP: Needed changes to end‑systems and firewalls.

IP multicast, IP QoS, IPsec, WAPI: Contradicted OSI layering principles.

IP Mobility and IPv6 commercial value unclear.

IP QoS and "smart pipelines": Mismatched Moore’s law.

What Makes a New Technology Succeed?

Successful technologies usually:

State the problem they solve in one sentence.

Explain their core idea and principle concisely.

Address a clear emerging market need.

Require only incremental, overlay‑style changes.

Align with broader economic and technical trends.

Other favorable factors.

Cloud computing exemplifies these criteria: it reduces IT costs, offers utility‑like on‑demand usage via virtualization, targets internet‑connected SMEs, relies on server virtualization, and follows established economic patterns.

Moore’s Law as the Hidden Driver

Moore’s law underpins the industry’s rhythm: simple solutions appear first, then become more complex, and eventually are displaced by a new, simpler generation.