Will Cloud Computing Redefine Half of the IT Industry? A Bold Forecast

Preface

Five years ago the author first learned about cloud computing, deleted all previous IT articles, and published a piece predicting that cloud would "steal most operations jobs within five to ten years." After five years of working in pre‑sales, product, design, implementation and support, the author confirms that the prediction was correct, noting rapid growth in income, insight and capability.

First: The Curtain Has Just Been Raised

Using a Three Kingdoms analogy, the early cloud market resembles the end of the Yellow Turban rebellion: OpenStack startups are the chaotic rebels, while emerging cloud giants are the warlords beginning to claim territory. The market is far from saturated; the top ten vendors can still double their performance, and consolidation is expected within three to five years as weaker players disappear.

Second: Cloud Could Capture Half of the IT Value Chain

The ultimate goal of the cloud industry is to replace all backend functions of IT, potentially accounting for half of the sector's revenue and profit. This transformation will affect:

Hardware vendors – customers will no longer buy servers directly.

IDC providers – their core advantage of power and network will be eroded as cloud data centers replace traditional facilities.

Operations engineers – cloud platforms reduce the need for manual system tuning.

Architecture engineers – SDKs and managed services diminish the need for custom infrastructure design.

Base‑software vendors (OS, databases, Java containers, queue services) – cloud integration squeezes their margins.

System integrators – they become mere sales agents as cloud platforms handle integration.

Since each IT customer’s spend is relatively fixed, the generous concessions from these six groups are enough for cloud providers to capture a substantial share of IT revenue.

Third: PaaS Is the Future of Cloud

IaaS is merely a resource‑resale business, while PaaS embodies the future of cloud with its "pay‑as‑you‑go" model, dramatically lowering labor costs. PaaS reduces the need for storage architects, network engineers, and even backend developers, pushing customers to focus solely on business logic. However, shifting user habits remains challenging, especially for general‑purpose technologies; developers readily adopt SDKs for messaging tools, but moving to serverless architectures requires deeper changes.

Fourth: Shifts in the Workforce

As cloud platforms mature, the emphasis moves from R&D to sales and pre‑sales. Product managers become less critical, while front‑line sales teams gain importance because customers must adopt cloud solutions. Pre‑sales and support roles grow in significance, and the overall workforce begins to resemble traditional software and integration companies rather than innovative tech startups.

Postscript

In turbulent times, heroes emerge, but eventually the market consolidates. Although cloud vendors are unlikely to merge into a single entity, competition will wane as the industry matures, leading to lower IT ownership costs for society as affordable cloud services become the norm.